Lithium-Ion Battery Price Forecast for 2025

What happened up to 2024 — context for the 2025 forecast

Battery pack prices fell dramatically in the 2010s and early 2020s thanks to scale, learning curves and cell-level innovation. In 2024, multiple sources reported another sizable drop in average pack prices (driven in part by increased LFP share and lower battery margins in China). The IEA noted that pack prices fell about 20% in 2024, while research groups pointed to abundant new cell capacity coming online and some easing in some mineral cost pressures.

That backdrop matters because 2025 isn’t happening in a vacuum: it’s shaped by the installed capacity ramp, the portfolio shift to lower-cost chemistries (notably LFP), and short-term commodity cycles for lithium, nickel and cobalt.

BNEF’s 2025 price observation — headline number

BloombergNEF’s 2025 battery price survey reported a volume-weighted global average battery-pack price around $108 per kWh in 2025 (survey released December 2025). That figure represents a year-on-year decline and reflects a mix of EV pack, BEV, and stationary storage pricing across global suppliers. BNEF also notes variance by end-use: EV battery packs and stationary storage packs can trade at materially different price points depending on chemistry, format, and warranty/engineering scope.

Takeaway: for planning purposes, treat $100–$120/kWh as a realistic global average for 2025 pack pricing, but expect meaningful sector and regional variation.

Drivers pushing prices lower in 2025

1. Capacity and competition. Massive gigafactory buildouts — particularly in China — continue to create manufacturing overcapacity in 2024–2025, pressuring margins and final pack prices.

2. Chemistry mix shift (LFP). LFP batteries, cheaper to make and increasingly performant for many vehicle and storage use cases, now command a larger share of shipments. That lowers average costs where LFP is acceptable.

3. Manufacturing learning and cell design improvements. Ongoing improvements in electrode loading, module integration and pack architecture continue to shave manufacturing cost per kWh.

These effects combined explain why pack prices can keep falling even when some raw-material prices briefly spike.

Headwinds that could slow or reverse declines

1. Raw material volatility. Lithium, nickel and cobalt markets can swing rapidly; aggressive increases in spot prices can raise cell cost even if manufacturing efficiency improves. For example, cyclical lithium price rallies have historically tightened margins.

2. Policy and trade frictions. Tariffs, local content rules and subsidy changes can bifurcate prices by region, raising delivered cost in markets with high import barriers.

3. Quality and warranty demands. As OEMs ask for longer warranties and higher energy density, suppliers may charge premiums for higher-grade cells and tighter pack engineering.

Because of these headwinds, some analysts expect price declines to slow in 2026 compared with the steep declines of early 2020s.

Sector breakdown — what $108/kWh means in practice

EV passenger car packs. EV-grade packs typically require higher energy density and more expensive cathodes for range, so reported averages for EV packs in 2025 can sit near or slightly below the global average (BNEF noted EV pack averages near $99/kWh in 2025 in some datasets). Expect OEM negotiation to drive a wide band (roughly $90–$140/kWh) depending on chemistry and volume.

Stationary storage packs. Stationary storage can tolerate lower energy density and more rugged, lower-cost chemistries (e.g., LFP). Some surveys show stationary storage pack costs falling faster and trading significantly lower than EV packs in 2025 (sub-$100/kWh in many procurements).

Practical advice for procurement teams in 2025

1. Lock short windows for large buys. Given price volatility, consider staged purchasing or options that let you hedge.

2. Specify chemistry and warranty clearly. LFP offers lower cost per kWh but different energy density and thermal behavior—make sure system requirements align.

3. Factor in total system cost, not just cell price. Balance pack price per kWh with inverter, BMS, installation and lifecycle costs — NREL emphasizes looking at system-level capital and O&M when comparing storage options.

Outlook summary — forecast for 2025

Based on leading industry surveys and agency commentary, expect average global lithium-ion battery pack prices in 2025 to cluster around $100–$120 per kWh, with BNEF reporting approximately $108/kWh as a volume-weighted average. Regional, chemistry and application differences mean actual procurement prices can vary widely — EV packs often trade in a different band than stationary storage packs. Keep an eye on commodity markets and announced production ramps because both can materially shift the near-term outlook.

FAQs 

1. What is the expected average lithium-ion battery pack price in 2025?

Industry surveys point to about $100–$120/kWh, with BNEF reporting ~$108/kWh as a 2025 average. 

2. Why did battery prices keep falling even when metal prices rose?

Larger scale, manufacturing improvements, and a shift to cheaper chemistries (like LFP) have offset some raw-material increases. 

3. Will EV battery pack prices be the same as stationary storage packs?

No — EV packs typically require higher energy density and can be priced differently; stationary storage often achieves lower $/kWh in 2025. 

4. How much do raw materials influence 2025 prices?

Significantly. Lithium, nickel and cobalt can swing margins; sudden price shifts can raise cell costs even in a competitive manufacturing environment. 

5. Is LFP the main reason prices fell?

LFP’s rising share is an important factor because it is cheaper and well suited for many EV and storage applications. 

6. Should I delay procurement to wait for lower prices?

Only if you can tolerate timing risk; hedge strategies or staged buys help manage the tradeoff. (See procurement advice above.)

7. How will 2025 prices affect project economics for solar+storage?

Lower battery costs directly improve project IRR and shorten payback periods, making storage more competitive with grid services. 

8. Will battery prices fall rapidly after 2025?

Many analysts expect slower declines after 2025 because the easy manufacturing gains have been realized; raw material dynamics will matter more. 

9. Are there regional price differences in 2025?

Yes — manufacturing location, tariffs, and logistics create regional spreads; China-sourced cells often remain cheaper for many buyers. 

10. Where can I find regular updates on battery prices?

Follow industry surveys from BloombergNEF, IEA reports, and technical analyses by NREL and other national labs for the most reliable updates.

References:

[1]. BloombergNEF. (2025). 2025 Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey: Lithium-ion battery pack prices fall to $108/kWh. BloombergNEF insights. 

[2]. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2025). Global EV Outlook 2025 – Electric vehicle batteries. IEA analysis and commentary. 

[3]. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). (2025). Cole, W. et al., Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage (NREL report). 

[4]. Bloomberg. (2025). Why global battery prices are expected to drop again in 2026. Bloomberg reporting and analysis. 

[5]. Wikipedia. (2025). Lithium-ion battery. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery